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The global economy in 2025 is marked by diverging trends, with the US showing resilience and growth, while Europe faces stagnation and uncertainty, particularly in the industrial sector. Switzerland's economy is expected to grow moderately at 1.3%, driven by a strong chemical and pharmaceutical industry, despite challenges from a strong franc and weak industrial demand. Political instability and delayed reforms in Europe hinder recovery, raising risks of a downward spiral in industry.
Renault SA, a leading global carmaker, reported vehicle sales of 2.2 million units in 2023, with 91.9% from passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. The company operates 38 industrial sites worldwide, with sales predominantly in France (29.2%) and Europe (49.3%). Services account for 8.1% of total sales, including financing and maintenance.
U.S. stocks are expected to thrive in 2025, driven by a strong macro environment, robust earnings growth, and significant spending on artificial intelligence. The economy is projected to grow around 2% to 2.5%, supported by a healthy labor market and rising disposable income, while inflation may slightly exceed the Fed's 2% target. Small-cap stocks are viewed as less appealing in the near term, with a focus on large-cap companies, particularly in financials, consumer discretionary, and tech sectors.
U.S. stocks are expected to thrive in 2025, driven by a strong macro environment, robust earnings growth, and significant spending on AI, with a target of 6,600 for the S&P 500. While small-cap stocks face challenges, sectors like financials, consumer discretionary, and utilities present promising opportunities. Inflation is projected to remain slightly above the Fed's 2% target, supported by a resilient economy and ongoing consumer spending.
UBS has reaffirmed its Buy recommendation for Vinci, maintaining a target price of €132, indicating a 33% upside potential. November traffic figures showed a 3.8% increase in freeway traffic and an 8.8% rise in passenger traffic at Vinci Airports, attributed to favorable long weekends.
Dow futures are rising as investors await the final rate decision and economic forecast of the year. Intraday data is provided by FACTSET, with all quotes reflecting local exchange time. Real-time U.S. stock quotes are based on trades reported through Nasdaq, while intraday data may be delayed by at least 15 minutes.
European markets are under pressure due to political instability, particularly following Chancellor Olaf Scholz's government collapse and early elections in Germany. Despite these challenges, the DAX 40 reached record highs, buoyed by France's political turmoil, while UK economic indicators show resilience amid inflationary pressures and steady wage growth. The Bank of England is expected to maintain interest rates, contributing to ongoing volatility in European indices.
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Home ownership is gaining popularity in 2024, leading to rising prices in Eastern Switzerland, as highlighted in the St.Gallen real estate market report. In Rapperswil-Jona, the cost of a single-family home now exceeds 2 million CHF, fueled by a recent interest rate cut.
Banque Cantonale de Genève (BCGE) projects a positive economic outlook for 2025, with GDP growth slightly below 2% and inflation around 1.1%. The thriving pharmaceutical sector, which constitutes a third of Swiss exports, is a key driver, although volatility due to geopolitical factors remains a concern. Additionally, Geneva has received a historic AA+ financial rating from Standard & Poor's, reflecting strong financial management.
Geneva's economy is projected to grow by 2% in 2025, primarily driven by the pharmaceuticals and services sectors, despite pressures on manufacturing. The local economy faces risks from global geopolitical tensions and raw material price fluctuations, highlighting the need for diversification to mitigate vulnerabilities. BCGE maintains a moderately positive outlook while urging caution regarding external shocks.

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